CERC — Environmental Software and Services

Wind energy forecasting

CERC provides short-term operational forecasting services for wind turbine output using CERC's FLOWSTAR-Energy model. This was extensively tested during the EU TOPFARM project. An example of live power predictions for an operational wind turbine is shown in the bar graph below.

Brockhills Farm turbine live predictions

The bar graph shows hourly wind power forecasts for four days ahead giving power output for an operational wind turbine with a rated output of 15 kW. The turbine is at Brockhills Farm in a rural area near Inverurie, Scotland (see map). These predictions enable the turbine owner to plan their energy usage for periods when the power output is high, and avoid periods when the wind speed is low and the power output is very low or zero.

These forecasts are made using CERC’s FLOWSTAR-Energy model to simulate air flow and turbulence accounting for the effects of local terrain near the turbine site, predicting local variations which have a significant impact on power output. The forecasts use open data including UK Ordnance Survey 50 terrain data and UK Met Office Datapoint weather forecasts. Power curve data for the Kingspan KW15 turbine was supplied by the manufacturer.

Similar forecast services could be provided for both on-shore and off-shore sites anywhere in the world. FLOWSTAR-Energy can be used for individual turbines or for wind farms, simulating turbine wakes, their interaction and their effect on the flow field and wind energy resource.

Brockhills Farm turbine location map

Brockhills Farm turbine location map

Flow field map over complex terrain

Flow field map over complex terrain

More information can be found at these links:

Please email forecast@cerc.co.uk if you would like to discuss our forecasting services.

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